by qwilliamh2
17. May 2012 08:56
Home Prices to Stabilize by Summer's End?
When the bottom arrives in the national housing market later this year, how far will we be from the heady peaks of the real estate boom when prices were at their zenith?
That prediction from Fiserv, the analytics company that publishes the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, estimates that at the bottom, or “trough” of the peak-to-trough fall, prices will be 35 percent lower than their peak level in the first quarter of 2006.
“After years of large declines, the housing market is showing signs of stabilization. In the fourth quarter of 2011, home prices in 70 markets, representing 18 percent of the 384 metro areas tracked by Fiserv Case-Shiller, were unchanged or had increased compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. In 32 percent of the markets (122 metro areas), the price declines were under two percent. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the average price of a U.S. single-family home fell to a new post-bubble low, declining four percent from the year-ago period. Fiserv Case-Shiller projects a further modest decline of 0.8 percent by the end of 2012,” estimates Fiserv.
Markets rebounding off very large price declines include Detroit, Mich. (+9.8 percent), Cape Coral, Fla. (+3.5 percent) and Port St. Lucie, Fla. (+1.1 percent). However, prices dropped by more than two percent in nearly one-half of metro areas (191), including double-digit decreases in Atlanta (-12.8 percent), Reno, Nev. (-10.8 percent) and Tucson, Ariz. (-10 percent).
“We expect that home prices, which generally lag changes in sales activity by nine to 12 months, will stabilize by the end of this summer and then rise at an annualized rate of 3.9 percent over the next five years,” says David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist.
“The precipitous drop in home prices was an immediate cause of the last recession and the financial crisis. Falling home equity has cut into household consumption and has further constrained the economic recovery,” Stiff added. “However, very low prices have also started to draw in more buyers. As demand for houses ramps up, construction activity will increase and residential investment will begin to make a substantial contribution to the recovery and GDP overall.”
Due to the unprecedented price decline and record-low mortgage rates, affordability has improved dramatically. The relationship between home prices and rents has returned to 1998 levels. The ratio of median single-family home price to median family income is lower than any time since 1991. For a conventional mortgage, the payment for a median-priced home represents just 12 percent of median-family income, the lowest percentage on record (since 1971). Fiserv Case Shiller projects this record-level affordability will eventually bring more first-time and trade-up buyers back into the housing market, especially as apartment rents continue to increase and new households are formed, making buying a cheaper option than renting. Growing demand from first-time and trade-up buyers will finally put a floor under home prices, ending the nearly seven-year collapse of the housing bubble.
Other highlights from the latest Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes include:
• Some of the hardest-hit markets are expected to experience the fastest growth during the recovery. Six of the 10 markets where annualized prices are expected to rise the most over the next five years have experienced price declines of more than 50 percent from their peaks.
• Conversely, home prices in markets that were spared the worst of the housing downturn are projected to grow at a slower pace. Texas, for example, accounts for 11 of the 39 markets where prices are projected to increase at an annualized 1.5 percent or less over the next five years.
• Of the 30 best-performing housing markets in the 2011 fourth quarter, 13 had unemployment rates of seven percent or less and 14 had a median family income above the national average.
• Seven of the 10 worst-performing markets in 2011 had unemployment rates higher than the national average and median family incomes below the national average.
• Twenty-two of the 25 markets that have seen the largest decline in home prices from peak to the end of 2011 are in California and Florida.
For more information, visit http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com. 
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by qwilliamh2
13. January 2011 04:36
Interest in buying a foreclosed home is on the rise, but so are concerns about the risk involved in the process. In a December survey, Trulia found that 49 percent of Americans were at least somewhat likely to consider buying a foreclosure, up from 45 percent in May 2010. But the number of US adults who believed there are disadvantages to buying foreclosures had also increased, from 78 percent to 81 percent over the same time frame. Among those folks who had qualms about purchasing a foreclosure, the top concerns were:
- that buying a foreclosure might involve hidden costs,
- that the buying process itself is risky, and
- that the home might continue to lose value, after escrow closes.
While there certainly are risks that run with buying a foreclosed home, the most risky way to do it is also the least common method: at the foreclosure auction itself. Auction buyers often don't have the opportunity to fully vet the foreclosure to ensure that they are receiving clear title and/or to make sure they're not getting a lemon. With that said, most foreclosures are resold not at the foreclosure auction, but as an REO (short for Real Estate Owned - by the bank), listed by a real estate broker on the Multiple Listing Service and on Trulia!
When you buy an REO in this way, you have lots of opportunities to use some tricks of the trade, so to speak, to avoid some of the traps you may fear. Here are my Top 4 Tricks and Traps for Foreclosure Buyers:1. As-is means as-is, period. (Most of the time.) Banks have very little interest, inclination or even the logistically necessary resources to execute repairs on your home. Many of these homes are managed by an asset management company in another state, and may not even have a local person besides the agent who can handle large repairs. Generally speaking, bank-owned homes are sold on a very strict "as-is, where-is" basis, which just means that you should expect to take possession of it, if you buy it, in exactly the position and location it is, no matter how defective. Do not walk into a viewing of a foreclosed home, notice how the plumbing is all ripped out of the wall, and make an offer for it, assuming you'll be able to get the bank to "fix" the issue later. Usually, if the bank is willing to do any repairs to a foreclosed home, they do so, on the advice of the listing agent, prior to the home being listed.Out of hundreds of foreclosure transactions I have personally been involved in, I have seen exactly four where the bank did agree to do some level of repairs at a buyer's request. Every one of those times, the repair was to fix a health-and-safety endangering property defect, like a gas-leak or an electrical fritz. And every one of those times, the property defect was highly non-obvious - not something even a diligent buyer could have detected visually prior to making an offer. Maybe another few times I've seen a bank agree to a small price reduction due to surprising condition problems. And dozens of times, I've seen transactions fall apart or buyers take on the property’s repair costs, when they request repair credits, price reductions or actual repairs from the ban seller.If a foreclosure you're considering has obvious property damage, have your contractor stop by with you or gather whatever information you need to get as comfortable as possible with your offer price, assuming that the bank will not be chipping anything in for repairs, before you make the offer.
2. The bank speaks no evil. When it comes to real estate disclosures, the fact is, the bank speaks not much of anything! Many states exempt banks and other types of corporate homeowners from making substantive disclosures about the condition of the property. Even in jurisdictions where the bank is not legally exempt, most banks will simply write across the required disclosures something to the effect that the bank has no knowledge of the property's condition. (Before you protest with a "that's not fair!!" keep in mind that the bank never lived in the property, so most often truly does have no idea of any important facts or details about its condition or location, the things an average home seller would be required to disclose.)Even in a normal transaction, it behooves a buyer to be thorough in having the property inspected and meticulous about reviewing the resulting inspection reports. But buying a foreclosure ups even that ante, as you have no seller disclosures to highlight particular problems you should have looked at, and none of the usual legal recourse you would have if a “regular” seller made incomplete disclosures. Get a property inspection. A pest inspection. A roof inspection. A sewer line inspection. A pool inspection, if you have a pool and care about its condition.
Yes - all these inspections cost money, but the drama and thousands each of them can save you is well worth it. And read your state’s buyer inspection advisory or similar document (ask your agent), just to make sure you’re aware of all the inspections that are available to you, and work with your agent to determine which ones make sense, and which are not appropriate.Some insider tips:
- Vacant foreclosures often have their utilities disconnected. Work with your agent to make sure the utilities get turned on - even for a single day - so that your property inspector can run the water taps, test the stove and dishwasher, see if the water heater and electrical outlets work, and so forth.
- If appliances are there, the bank will probably leave them there, even though they may not have technical “legal” ownership of them, so they may not be included in the contract, like in a "normal" home sale.
- However, the bank will not give you any sort of warranty on appliances, so try to obtain any warranty coverage you want or need elsewhere - from a home warranty company or, potentially, the original manufacturer/retailer.
3. The contract terms, they are a changin'. One thing squarely in the wheelhouses of local real estate pros are local market standard practices. From negotiating practices to which party pays which closing costs, every market is different, and experienced local agents are experts on this information. If you’re buying a foreclosure, though, the bank will often require you to use it’s own purchase contract, rather than the more commonly used state forms. Many times, this is done to advise the buyer of the bank’s refusal to make substantive disclosures (see above) and to change some of the normal practices for your area to the bank’s standard practices.
For instance, if you are buying a home in a contingency state, where you would usually have to sign a document proactively releasing contingencies, the bank’s contract will probably change that, so that your transaction operates on an objection period. In "objection" based transactions, you have a certain period of time in which you must either speak up about your concerns with the property and/or cancel the deal, or you will automatically be presumed to be moving forward with the deal and your deposit money will be forfeited if you change your mind after that date.
If you’ve been making offers on non-foreclosures on the standard contract form, or you’ve bought homes before and think you know the drill, please - I implore you - READ every word of the contract you sign when you buy a home from the bank, and ask your broker, agent or attorney to explain anything that doesn’t make sense.
4. Expect the unexpected. When you buy a foreclosure, you might end up working with the bank’s escrow company, instead of a company you or your agent selects. And the bank's escrow provider might be slow or disorganized. C’est la vie. The bank might rush you for your deposit money, but take their own sweet time coming up with the necessary signatures on their end to close the deal. Par for the course. You might expect that the bank would be desperate for buyers, and instead find out that there are 20 offers on the same REO. Or, you might be the only offer and still get your aggressively low (but still reasonable) offer rejected, only to have the bank reduce the list price of the home to the same price of your offer! (They often want to see if exposing it to other buyers at the new, lower list price might generate more interest and higher offers.)
When you’re buying a foreclosure, expect glitches, expect your calendar to be derailed, expect the bank to be inflexible and possibly even unreasonable. It’s not overkill to ask your broker or agent to brief you on the common complications they see in REO transactions. Having realistic expectations may keep you from pulling your hair out. And if the transaction turns out to run smooth as silk? You’ll be pleasantly surprised.
by Tara Nelson
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by qwilliamh2
4. December 2010 03:53
You’ve watched the late-night infomercials and you’re ready to do the bank “a favor” and take a problem off their hands. Plus, you expect to make "a killing" in the process. Sounds great and it might just happen, but first you should take a look at some facts and get prepared.
An REO (Real Estate Owned) is a property that goes back to the mortgage company after an unsuccessful foreclosure auction. You see, most foreclosure auctions do not even result in bids. After all, if there was enough equity in the property to satisfy the loan, the owner would have probably sold the property and paid off the bank. That is why the property ends up at a foreclosure or trustee sale.
Foreclosure sales begin with a minimum bid that includes the loan balance, any accrued interest, plus attorney's fees and any costs association with the foreclosure process. In order to bid at a foreclosure auction, you must have a cashier's check in your hand for the full amount of your bid. If you are the successful bidder, you receive the property in "as is" condition, which may include someone still living in the property. There may also be other liens against the property.
Since what is owed to the bank is almost always more than what the property is worth, very few foreclosure auctions result in a successful sale. Then the property "reverts" to the bank. It becomes an REO, or "real estate owned" property.
The bank now owns the property and the mortgage loan no longer exists. The bank will handle the eviction, if necessary, and may do some repairs. They will negotiate with the IRS for removal of tax liens and pay off any homeowner’s association dues. As a purchaser of an REO property, the buyer will receive a title insurance policy and the opportunity to investigate the property.
A bank owned property might not be a great bargain. Do your homework before making an offer. Make sure that the price you pay (if you’re successful) is comparable to other homes in the neighborhood. Consider the costs of renovation, including time to complete them. Don’t get caught up in a ‘bidding war’ and pay over market value. It’s an old myth that “foreclosures” are a bargain.
Each bank/lender works a little differently, but they all have similar goals. They want to get the best price possible and have no interest in "dumping" real estate cheaply. Generally, banks have an entire department set up to manage their REO inventory.
Once you make an offer to purchase, banks generally present a "counter-offer." It may be at a higher price than you expect, but they have to demonstrate to investors, shareholders and auditors that they attempted to get the highest price possible. You should plan to counter the counter-offer.
Your offer or counter-offer will probably have to be reviewed and approved by several individuals and companies. Even once an offer is accepted, the bank may insert wording like “..subject to corporate approval with 5 days."
Banks always want to sell a property in "as is" condition. Most will provide a Section 1 pest certification, but not unless you include it in your offer and negotiate the point. They will allow you to get all the inspections you want (at your expense), but they may not agree to do any repairs.
Your offer should include an inspection contingency period that allows you to terminate the sale if the inspections reveal unanticipated damages that the bank will not correct.
Even though you agreed to “as is," always give the bank another opportunity to make repairs or give you a credit after you’ve completed your inspections. Sometimes they’ll re-negotiate to save the transaction instead of putting the property back on the market, but don’t take it for granted.
Banks do not want to see a lot of proprietary disclosures; they are exempt from the California Seller’s Transfer Disclosure Statement (TDS-14). If there are real estate agents involved, either representing you or the bank, those agents are required to provide you their disclosure statements.
Most banks will not provide financing on their REOs but it doesn’t hurt to ask. Especially if the property has extensive damage and you are purchasing it "as is."
Before making an offer, have your agent contact the the listing agent and ask the following:
- Are there any inspection reports?
- What work has the bank agreed to?
- Is there a special "as is" form?
- How long does it take the bank to accept an offer?
- How does your agent deliver the offer?
Offers are usually FAXED to the bank. The listing agent needs your originals. There is no formal presentation. Keep in mind: nothing happens evenings and weekends (banks are closed)
Since there is no face-to-face presentation to the bank, provide the listing agent with a pre-qualification or better yet, a pre-approval letter and buyer biography. Make your offer easy to accept.
Hopefully these tips will manage your expectations. Remember that REO's sell at pretty close to full market value and are not the deals presented on late night television.
Copyright 2000 Walt Harvey, real estate broker, CRS, GRI
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by qwilliamh2
5. November 2010 16:24
Should You Wait to Buy in a Down Market?
Everybody wants to know how to best time the marketwhen buying a home. It's just natural. Especially if you're thinking about buying in a down market where homes prices are declining. You wonder how low they will go and whether you should wait, right?
Some Home Buyers Should Buy Immediately
You're probably thinking: "Of course, he would say that. he's a Realtor, and agents always say 'Now is the best time to buy'." Well, here is why:
- If you are a seller who wants to move up to a more expensive home in a down market, now could be the best time. The longer you wait to sell, the lower the price of your home could fall.
- If you can arrange for alternate housing, a smart strategy is sell now, wait a few months, then buy your new home.
- If you sell and buy simultaneously, you'll still be ahead of the game because the price reduction on the purchase is greater than the loss on the sale.
Consider the "Loss" on Selling Your Present Home
For example, say your present house is worth $300,000, but because of high inventory and few buyers, you must reduce your price by 10%. So, instead of receiving $300,000, you would get $270,000 and "lose" $30,000.
Consider Your Real Profit
Now, consider this. Say you bought this home 10 years ago and paid $100,000. You're still ahead $170,000, less costs of sale, aren't you? (This ignores monthly payments, but you would make those if you were renting, too.)
Consider the "Savings" on Buying Your New Home
If you are planning to move up to a $500,000 house, which is located in the same distressed market, you could probably buy that house at that same 10% discount or $450,000. This would mean you had saved $50,000.
Review of Selling and Buying Numbers
- So you "lost" $30,000 on the sale of your home
- But you "made" $50,000 on the purchase of your new home
- Doesn't that put you $20,000 ahead?
Don't Forget the Impact of Interest Rates
Which way are interest rates moving? Are they moving up or moving down? If interest rates are near an all-time low and beginning to inch upwards, waiting could cost you more than you would think. You might not be able to afford to buy a home at any price. Following is what happens if you're looking for a loan around $400,000.
- FACT: Each 1/2 point increase in your interest rate gives you $25,000 less in purchasing power.
- FACT: Each 1 point increase in your interest rate gives you $50,000 less in purchasing power.
- FACT: Each 2 point increase in your interest rate gives you $100,000 less in purchasing power.
Look at the Differences Among Purchase Prices versus Interest Rates
If you put down 20% and qualify for an 80% loan, here are your principal and interest payments on the following purchase prices:
- $425,000 sales price, at 8.25% interest, your payment is $2,554.
- $450,000 sales price, at 7.75% interest, your payment is $2,579.
- $475,000 sales price, at 7.25% interest, your payment is $2,592.
- $500,000 sales price, at 6.75% interest, your payment is $2,594.
- $525,000 sales price, at 6.25% interest, your payment is $2,586.
The payments are almost identical. However, the home you can afford to buy a 8.25% is $100,000 less than the home you can afford to buy at 6.25%. If you wait for prices to further decline, the perceived value could be lost due to higher rates.
A good strategy is to weigh all the pros and cons of real estate ownership before making the decision to buy or sell. Don't panic over newspaper headlines. Make an informed decision. Run your own numbers.
next: Updated 3rd quater sales on home sales in Westlake.Lakewood,Rocky River,Bay Village,Fairview Park,North Olmsted, Avon, Avon Lake and North Ridgeville
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by qwilliamh2
2. September 2009 09:07
The news is so up and down these days! Here’s a quick breakdown of the recent housing news and what it means for us…
The National Association of Realtors home resales figures for October showed, as expected, a real boost from the First Time Homebuyer credit as people rushed to get to the closing table under the uncertainty of whether the federal tax credit would be extended. (It was.) Existing home sales surged 10.1 percent to 6.10 million units, seasonally adjusted, compared to the 4.94 unit level recorded in October 2008. This was the highest activity level in resales since February 2007.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, warned that the heavier than expected October sales will probably spell declines during the month of December. Some potential home buyers will take a break for the holidays, while others will gather their resources for a spring onslaught of the housing market before the homebuyer tax credit program expires in the spring.
NAR also reported that certain areas have received such a strong surge of buyers that multiple bids are frequently coming in. Some of these hot markets include metro Washington, D.C., parts of Florida, and the Southwest. First Time Buyer inventory is becoming tight in many cases, however, because many retail buyers are still reluctant to run the risk of waiting for a Short Sale. Just be sure that your first time buyers are qualified and that they will not need to seek loans and make sure to weed out FHA or other seasoning requirements for your Buyer’s loan if it is a short sale.
Unsold inventory is down 14.9 percent from a year ago. The average days on market has dropped from 8 months in September to 7 months in October for MLS listed properties. The median residential home price is now $173,100, which is down 7.1 percent from a year ago. Distressed property makes up 30 percent of the market.
These indicators are showing that in many markets, we should be focusing on newer homes. People are going to be a little more wary of buying an older house when there could be a newer one coming on the market due to a foreclosure or short sale for the same price or even slightly less. Of course if you are in a market full of older homes, this isn’t as big of a factor.
Many experts believe the housing market is not out of the woods and that there will be a double-dip in the housing recession. Prices are expected to continue to fall in many markets by another 5 to 10 percent by spring. Harvard economist, Howard Glaeser, for example, believes that cities in the cold, industrial Northeast and Midwest will never fully recover from the housing crisis; the Sunbelt will gradually sop up the oversupply of homes because these areas of the country are still going to continue to grow. (See “ Will Your Hometown Be a Boomtown Again?” in Money Magazine (November 25, 2009).)
Reason for pessimism is seen in the foreclosure statistics. The Mortgage Bankers Association said last week that a record-high 14 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. Driven by rising unemployment, fixed-rate loans made to borrowers with good credit accounted for nearly 33 percent of new foreclosures last quarter. That compares with 21 percent a year ago.
The Wall Street Journal points out that it is new construction and new home sales that are tied to measures of economic health in the GDP calculation, not home resale. Thanksgiving week the Commerce Department reported that new home construction dropped 10.6% in October to 529,000 units on an annualized basis, the lowest level since April. This poor showing in the new housing market caused many economists to lower their estimates of the 4th quarter's GDP to around 3% instead of 3.5%. This is just another indication that the economy is still weak and that we cannot count on a steady improvement in the resale housing market necessarily. There are plenty of bumps, twists and turns in the road ahead.
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